Backlog snapshots: June 8, July 7, August 10, September 3 & October 9, 2026 · pending applications by filing month
Select the month you filed to see how many citizenship applications were still pending ahead of
yours, how fast that queue is moving, how your own filing month has been shrinking, what IRCC
itself says about it, and when it is projected to clear. Three estimates are
shown side by side, because the answer depends on assumptions that cannot be verified from the
published data; the spread between them is the honest margin of error. Read the
methodology for how the numbers are derived and where they fall short.
Please note that this is not the official timeline. This is a user derived estimate to be mainly used
for applications stuck in Background and Prohibitions. For the usual timelines, please take a look at
IRCC’s official check processing times page.
Filing months from May '26 onward cannot be estimated and are not selectable. Between the Sep 3 and Oct 9 snapshots the feed moved about 115,000 records between those cohorts rather than deciding them, so their apparent clearance rates measure re-dating, not processing.
Ahead of you (raw)
15,600
Head clearance / month
1,945
Your cohort size
1,800
Random draw / month
3.9% → 5.6%
IRCC’s own estimate
Needs more time
Your cohort's own trend. August 2024 has gone from 2,100 to 1,800 pending since the Jun 8 snapshot, about 70 a month. At that pace it would take about 21 months to reach the last 250, far longer than the 4 months of data behind it, so the queue estimates below are the better guide.
Pending at each snapshotFitted pace, about 70 a month
2.4k1.6k8000
1,800250 assumed stuck
Jul '26AugSepOct
Clearing ahead of you (Sep 3 → Oct 9): Mar '24 −600 · Oct '23 or earlier −400 · Jan '24 −300, of 2,100 in all.
No assumptions
Everyone filed before you counts; observed clearance rate applies.
Estimated clearanceJun 2027 (8.0 mo)
Queue ahead: 15,600 · random draw: 3.9%/mo rising to 5.6%/mo as the cohort shrinks, 31.2% chance of being picked before the queue clears
View data as table
Month
Ahead of you
Draw chance / mo
Oct 2026
15,600
3.9%
Nov 2026
13,655
4.0%
Dec 2026
11,710
4.2%
Jan 2027
9,766
4.4%
Feb 2027
7,821
4.6%
Mar 2027
5,876
4.8%
Apr 2027
3,931
5.1%
May 2027
1,987
5.3%
Jun 2027
42
5.6%
Jul 2027
0
6.0%
−3,500 pre-Sep ’23
Excludes ~3,500 applications filed before Sep 2023 from the
queue ahead.
Estimated clearanceApr 2027 (6.2 mo)
Queue ahead: 12,100 · random draw: 3.9%/mo rising to 5.1%/mo as the cohort shrinks, 24.2% chance of being picked before the queue clears
View data as table
Month
Ahead of you
Draw chance / mo
Oct 2026
12,100
3.9%
Nov 2026
10,155
4.0%
Dec 2026
8,210
4.2%
Jan 2027
6,266
4.4%
Feb 2027
4,321
4.6%
Mar 2027
2,376
4.8%
Apr 2027
431
5.1%
May 2027
0
5.3%
−3,500 and −250/mo stuck
Additionally treats ~250 applications per cohort month as never clearing.
Estimated clearanceFeb 2027 (4.7 mo)
Queue ahead: 9,100 · random draw: 4.5%/mo rising to 5.5%/mo as the cohort shrinks, 21.1% chance of being picked before the queue clears
How many applications from each filing month were still pending at each snapshot, with the
change since the previous snapshot in brackets. A − means applications
were decided and left the queue; a + means the cohort grew, which is backdated
registrations being entered rather than decisions being reversed. Your selected month is
highlighted.
Applications still pending by filing month at each backlog snapshot, with the
change between consecutive snapshots.
Filing month
Jun 8
Jul 7
Aug 10
Sep 3
Oct 9
Oct '23 or earlier
6,100
5,400−70011.5%
4,800−60011.1%
4,400−4008.3%
4,000−4009.1%
Nov '23
700
600−10014.3%
500−10016.7%
400−10020.0%
400no change
Dec '23
1,400
900−50035.7%
700−20022.2%
600−10014.3%
400−20033.3%
Jan '24
1,600
1,400−20012.5%
1,200−20014.3%
1,000−20016.7%
700−30030.0%
Feb '24
1,900
1,500−40021.1%
1,000−50033.3%
600−40040.0%
500−10016.7%
Mar '24
2,100
2,000−1004.8%
1,700−30015.0%
1,400−30017.6%
800−60042.9%
Apr '24
2,100
2,100no change
2,100no change
1,900−2009.5%
1,700−20010.5%
May '24
2,100
2,000−1004.8%
1,900−1005.0%
1,900no change
1,800−1005.3%
Jun '24
2,200
2,200no change
2,200no change
2,100−1004.5%
1,900−2009.5%
Jul '24
1,800
1,700−1005.6%
1,700no change
1,600−1005.9%
1,600no change
Aug '24
2,100
2,100no change
1,900−2009.5%
2,000+1005.3%
1,800−20010.0%
Sep '24
2,100
2,000−1004.8%
2,000no change
1,900−1005.0%
1,900no change
Oct '24
2,300
2,200−1004.3%
2,200no change
2,100−1004.5%
2,000−1004.8%
Nov '24
2,800
2,700−1003.6%
2,600−1003.7%
2,600no change
2,500−1003.8%
Dec '24
2,600
2,400−2007.7%
2,300−1004.2%
2,300no change
2,200−1004.3%
Jan '25
3,000
2,900−1003.3%
2,700−2006.9%
2,600−1003.7%
2,500−1003.8%
Feb '25
3,600
3,300−3008.3%
3,100−2006.1%
3,000−1003.2%
2,900−1003.3%
Mar '25
3,400
3,200−2005.9%
3,000−2006.3%
2,800−2006.7%
2,700−1003.6%
Apr '25
3,900
3,600−3007.7%
3,400−2005.6%
3,300−1002.9%
3,100−2006.1%
May '25
3,000
2,700−30010.0%
2,500−2007.4%
2,500no change
2,300−2008.0%
Jun '25
4,400
3,900−50011.4%
3,500−40010.3%
3,300−2005.7%
3,200−1003.0%
Jul '25
4,500
3,800−70015.6%
3,300−50013.2%
3,100−2006.1%
2,900−2006.5%
Aug '25
6,800
5,200−1,60023.5%
4,100−1,10021.2%
3,800−3007.3%
3,400−40010.5%
Sep '25
8,000
6,100−1,90023.8%
4,500−1,60026.2%
3,900−60013.3%
3,400−50012.8%
Oct '25
9,000
6,700−2,30025.6%
5,100−1,60023.9%
4,400−70013.7%
3,800−60013.6%
Nov '25
15,100
9,800−5,30035.1%
6,900−2,90029.6%
5,700−1,20017.4%
4,800−90015.8%
Dec '25
22,800
15,300−7,50032.9%
9,200−6,10039.9%
6,900−2,30025.0%
5,600−1,30018.8%
Jan '26
26,000
20,400−5,60021.5%
14,300−6,10029.9%
9,100−5,20036.4%
6,700−2,40026.4%
Feb '26
32,200
30,000−2,2006.8%
24,900−5,10017.0%
16,600−8,30033.3%
10,200−6,40038.6%
Mar '26
131,700
144,300+12,6009.6%
27,400−116,90081.0%
24,000−3,40012.4%
17,600−6,40026.7%
Apr '26
13,300
31,300+18,000135.3%
156,200+124,900399.0%
33,100−123,10078.8%
27,300−5,80017.5%
May '26
1,300
1,300no change
23,300+22,0001692.3%
141,700+118,400508.2%
26,700−115,00081.2%
Jun '26
500
1,200+700140.0%
1,400+20016.7%
26,500+25,1001792.9%
27,600+1,1004.2%
Jul '26
–
0
600+600
4,000+3,400566.7%
26,200+22,200555.0%
Aug '26
–
–
0
0no change
94,200+94,200
Sep '26
–
–
–
0
21,300+21,300
Oct '26
–
–
–
–
100
All months
326,400
326,200−2000.1%
328,200+2,0000.6%
327,100−1,1000.3%
322,700−4,4001.3%
The shape of the queue
How many applications from each filing month were still pending at the Oct 9 snapshot. The tallest bar is Apr '26 at 27,300. Filing months from May '26 onward are left out: their figures are still settling, and the 196,100 sitting in them at this snapshot would flatten every other bar to nothing. They are in the table above.
27.3k18k9k
Oct '23Jan '24Jan '25Jan '26Apr '26
The queue as a whole
Every filing month together. Since the first snapshot (Jun 8) the total has gone from 326,400 to 322,700, down 3,700 or about 1% in 4 months: new filings and decisions are roughly in balance. IRCC’s own line sits at May 2025: from that filing month on it publishes a countdown, and for every earlier month it says “We need more time to process your application”. It stood at December 2024 in the Jul 7 snapshot.
Pending, all filing months
322,700
at the Oct 9 snapshot
Change since last snapshot
−4,400
since Sep 3
New filings per month
~28,200
Mar '26 to Jul '26, as each was dated
Decided per month
23,929
Sep 3 → Oct 9, settled months
Where the work went
How many applications left each filing month between the Sep 3 and Oct 9 snapshots: 28,300 in all. The tallest bar is Feb '26 at 6,400. The four months from Jan '26 to Apr '26 account for 74% of it. Your month is highlighted. Filing months from May '26 onward are left out: their movement is re-dating rather than decisions, and is in the movement table above.